Thinking in Three Horizons

Three Horizons is an interesting foresight method that embraces the messy part of innovation and change:

The first horizon is the dominant present, which frames our current thinking about a domain…The third horizon is a possible future which may become dominant over time…

In between, there is the second horizon. This is a space in which the current horizon – where the power, the influence, and the money, along with connections, relationships and prestige are to be found – adapts to signals about the future: sometimes incrementally, sometimes disruptively, sometimes destructively.