Notes from Daniel Kahneman

### Conditions for expertise

* Rapid and unequivocal feedback

### Error and Overconfidence

* “The best way of doing subjective judgment is as an input to an algorithm”

* The “experts” never learn from their mistakes

* As soon as something happens that they didn’t predict:

* They understand why, and immediately write it off as “I won’t do that again”

* They exaggerate any hedges that they had made in that direction

* They introduce counterfactuals: “Well, it almost happened”

### Model of the mind

General trend in psychology to split thinking into 2 groups

Intuition	Reasoning
Fast Parallel Automatic Effortless Associative Slow-learning Emotional	Slow Serial Controlled Effortful Rule-governed Flexible Neutral

Most judgments and actions are intuitive, and “good enough”

Perception and intuition similar in how they work; but DIFFERENT in what they work on!

* Perceptions: current situations, event-based, stimuli

* Intuition: cognitive tasks, other things reasoning deals with–but this comes from your culture, upbringing, language, etc

Framing/attribute substitution

* Questionnaire asked students “how happy are you” and “how many dates did you go on last month”?

* Correlation between the two was entirely based on which order they were asked in (dating then happy, strong correlation; happy then dating, no correlation)