Utopia and its discontents

I’m a huge fan of Neal Stephenson, and also of his newest project [Hieroglyph](http://hieroglyph.asu.edu/), which aims to inspire future scientific breakthroughs with optimistic near-future science fiction. But I found two critiques of the approach quite compelling this week.

First, Virginia Postrel (whose writing on design I’ve enjoyed in the past), writes that “[Peter Thiel Is Wrong About the Future](http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-08/peter-thiel-is-wrong-about-the-future)” (I’m reading his book as well), and mentions Hieroglyph as similarly misled:

> The dystopian science fiction Stephenson’s Project Hieroglyph aims to counter isn’t the cause of our cultural malaise. It’s a symptom. The obstacle to more technological ambitions isn’t our idea of the future. It’s how we think about the present and the past…

> The reason mid-20th-century Americans were optimistic about the future wasn’t that science-fiction writers told cool stories about space travel…*People believed the future would be better than the present because they believed the present was better than the past*. They constantly heard stories — not speculative, futuristic stories but news stories, fashion stories, real-estate stories, medical stories — that reinforced this belief.

It’s the same ambivalence toward today’s progress that [Louis CK rails about](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEY58fiSK8E), and that [many science fiction writers and futurists recognize](http://bob.ryskamp.org/brain/?p=5326). We do live in amazing times, yet the dominant cultural reaction is frustration and dissatisfaction. We don’t often celebrate the incredible progress we’ve achieved. As [David Brooks once wrote](http://bob.ryskamp.org/brain/?p=481), “Americans have always been united less by a shared past than by the shared dream of a better future.”

The Guardian also [confronts the Hieroglyph collection](http://www.theguardian.com/books/booksblog/2014/oct/10/science-fiction-utopia-wilful-ignorance), calling the stories “built on willful ignorance”:

> But there is also a deliberate naivety to Project Hieroglyph. Stories such as Cory Doctorow’s The Man Who Sold the Moon are a veritable hymn to the culture of Silicon Valley and tech start-ups, but deftly wave away the part these cultures play in today’s corporate capitalism and all the inequalities that come with it.

I agree with their assessment of the best stories:

> The best contributions to Hieroglyph are the least optimistic, and the best attuned to the human reality that technology so often obscures. Entanglement by Vandana Singh and Madeline Ashby’s By the Time We Get to Arizona both look at the impact of new technologies in developing nations and among the world’s poorest people. They also tackle the obvious problem of technological innovation, the looming menace of climate change, environmental degradation and resource depletion that go hand in hand with new technologies.

I still believe there is a role for optimistic science fiction in changing the world. However it’s always good to be mindful of the present and past when thinking about the future, and to include messy and uncomfortable situations in even the most polished vision. The real future will be both based in today’s world and include a lot of today’s problems, and people are wise enough to recognize when those aspects are missing from stories about the future.

The pen is mightier than the keyboard

> What I was noticing was that I’ve become such a fast typist that I could slam out great big blocks of text quite rapidly — anything that came into my head, it would just dribble out of my fingers onto the screen. That includes bad stuff as well as good stuff. Once it’s out there on the screen, of course, you can edit it and you can fix the bad stuff, but it’s far better not to ever write down the bad stuff at all.

> With the fountain pen, which is a slower output device, the material stays in the buffer of your head for a longer period. So during that amount of time, you can fix it, you can make it better, you can even decide not to write it down at all — you can think better of writing it.

– [Neal Stephenson](http://www.barnesandnoble.com/review/neal-stephenson-anathem/)

The boring future

> One of the defining challenges of writing science fiction is explaining to the audience the amazing new things in this world while respecting the fact that the characters already live in that world… For you, this future is cool, but for them it’s just another day with the same old problems.

– [John Scalzi](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Scalzi), speaking at Google

See also Jamais Cascio, “[Your Posthumanism Is Boring Me](http://io9.com/5533833/your-posthumanism-is-boring-me)” and “[Fifteen Minutes Into the Future](http://www.openthefuture.com/2008/05/fifteen_minutes_into_the_futur.html)”, and Stuart Candy, “[Amazing=Mundane](http://futuryst.blogspot.com/2009/03/amazing-mundane.html)”.

Science Fiction and Social Fiction

> We have science fiction, and science follows it. We imagine it, and it comes true. Yet we don’t have social fiction, so nothing changes. – [Muhammad Yunus](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-moore/science-fiction-and-social-fiction_b_3100989.html)

A nice quote, and a good motivator, though I do think we have [a couple types](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopian_and_dystopian_fiction) of [social fiction](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_science_fiction).

Types of stories

> All great literature is one of two stories; a man goes on a journey or a stranger comes to town. – [Leo Tolstoy](http://www.goodreads.com/quotes/57886-all-great-literature-is-one-of-two-stories-a-man)

> A hero ventures forth from the world of common day into a region of supernatural wonder: fabulous forces are there encountered and a decisive victory is won: the hero comes back from this mysterious adventure with the power to bestow boons on his fellow man. – [Joseph Campbell](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hero_with_a_Thousand_Faces)

> Overcoming the Monster; Rags to Riches; The Quest; Voyage and Return; Comedy; Tragedy; Rebirth – [Christopher Booker](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seven_Basic_Plots)

> Boy Meets Girl, The Little Tailor, and the Man-Who-Learns-Better – [Robert Heinlein](http://blog.karenwoodward.org/2013/09/robert-heinlein-on-writing-of.html)

And [many](http://www.ipl.org/div/farq/plotFARQ.html), [MANY](http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2012/01/06/plotto/) [more](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/2366/what-are-the-seven-basic-literary-plots)…

Futurism vs fiction

> In science fiction, the imagined world supports the story; in futurism, the story supports the imagined world.

> It’s a simple but crucial difference, and one that too many casual followers of foresight work miss. If a futurist scenario reads like bad science fiction, it’s because it is bad science fiction, in the sense that it’s not offering the narrative arc that most good pieces of literature rely upon. And if the future presented in a science fiction story is weak futurism, that’s not a surprise either — as long as the future history helps to make the story compelling, it’s done its job.

> Futurists and science fiction writers often “talk shop” when they get together — but fundamentally, their jobs are very, very different. – [Jamais Cascio](http://www.openthefuture.com/2014/03/mirror_mirror_–_science_ficti.html)

The impossible and the improbable

Some good guidance on which technique to use depending on what you want to say:

> It’s been said that science fiction and fantasy are two different things. Science fiction the improbable made possible; fantasy the impossible made probable. – [Rod Serling](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fk3IB9uF7A&t=3m40s)

Designing for imagination

Some [good thoughts about the future of books, reading, and the imagination](http://sprintbeyondthebook.com/2014/05/the-future-of-imagination/):

> Looked at against richer media, it’s kind of amazing that books still exist at all. They don’t move. They can’t carry a tune. They’re simply not capable of the kind of visual beauty that we can get elsewhere in the media ecosystem…

> The thing about books, though, is that it’s not their primitive components that make them work. It’s the imagination of the reader, and that is an incredibly potent — and timeless — media tool. The power of a book comes from the act of reading it…

> What do we want the act of imagination that we call “reading” to look like and feel like in the future?

A couple good examples included as well.

Russia’s sci-fi strategist

On the heels of thinking about [design as politics](http://bob.ryskamp.org/brain/?p=5262) comes an interesting [mention of Vladimir Putin’s close advisor Vladislav Surkov, who also happens to be a novelist](http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/05/05/how_putin_is_reinventing_warfare):

> The Kremlin’s approach might be called “non-linear war,” a term used in a short story written by one of Putin’s closest political advisors, Vladislav Surkov, which was published under his pseudonym, Nathan Dubovitsky, just a few days before the annexation of Crimea. Surkov is credited with inventing the system of “managed democracy” that has dominated Russia in the 21st century, and his new portfolio focuses on foreign policy. This time, he sets his new story in a dystopian future, after the “fifth world war.”

Surkov [studied theater direction at the Moscow Institute of Culture](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Surkov) before moving into advertising, PR, and finally politics. One of his [stated goals](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Surkov) is to establish a national ideology for modern Russia:

> If we in Russia do not create our own discourse, our own public philosophy, our national ideology that would be acceptable for the majority of our citizens (at least for the majority, and preferably for all), then they are simply not going to talk to us and reckon with us.

But he has still found the time to [write essays, rock lyrics, and even novels](http://www.lrb.co.uk/v33/n20/peter-pomerantsev/putins-rasputin):

> In his spare time Surkov writes essays on conceptual art and lyrics for rock groups. He’s an aficionado of gangsta rap: there’s a picture of Tupac on his desk, next to the picture of Putin. And he is the alleged author of a bestselling novel, Almost Zero.

And like any true artist, he also has a rival and sworn enemy, [the poet and novelist Eduard Limonov](http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/legacy/adamcurtis/2012/01/the_years_of_stagnation_and_th.html), who takes a different approach:

> Eduard Limonov and Vladislav Surkov hate each other. But in many ways they are very similar because both are convinced that western democracy is a complete sham – and both are trying to create political alternatives to what they see as the second wave of stagnation that took over Russia in the 1990s.

The most interesting thing about this to me is how Surkov’s “art” seems to influence his work and vice versa. [His writing has been scoured](http://www.psmag.com/navigation/books-and-culture/can-kremlins-bizarre-sci-fi-stories-tell-us-russia-really-wants-78908/) for clues about Russia’s plans with mixed success–but the fact that any such writing exists is statement enough. Can you imagine Valerie Jarrett or Karl Rove publishing political fiction while advising the president? The writing shapes cultural acceptance of the policies to come, and is simultaneously a way to prototype and imagine more future ideas. Another example of design–through fiction–changing culture.

Science fiction + science fact

Michael Abrash, head of Valve Software’s augmented reality efforts, [talks about why he’s joining Oculus](http://www.oculusvr.com/blog/introducing-michael-abrash-oculus-chief-scientist). It’s interesting how he focuses on the imagined experience from the books as much as the technology, which meanwhile proceeds along its own path. Blending the two is a powerful combination.

> Sometime in 1993 or 1994, I read Snow Crash, and for the first time thought something like the Metaverse might be possible in my lifetime. Around the same time, I saw the first leaked alpha version of Doom…

> Fast-forward fourteen years…

> Then two things happen at about the same time. On one path, Palmer develops his first VR prototype, John and Palmer Luckey connect, Oculus forms and its Kickstarter is wildly successful, DK1 ships, and John becomes Oculus CTO. Meanwhile, I read Ready Player One, strongly recommend it to several members of the AR group, and we come to the conclusion that VR is potentially more interesting than we thought, and far more tractable than AR.